MLB Best Bets Today July 2:
Baseball fans probably felt a little cheated with the Monday schedule, as there were only three games played. We’re back to the full 15 and there isn’t a day game in sight for Tuesday. There are six games in each league and three interleague matchups as we approach the Fourth of July holiday.
Even though we consider the time after the All-Star Break to be the “second half”, all 30 MLB teams have now played at least 82 games, so we are officially into the second half of the 162-game campaign.
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Philadelphia Phillies at Chicago Cubs (-125, 9.5)
8:05 p.m. ET
The Phillies are missing some key pieces as they head into this series with the Cubs. Bryce Harper is on the IL after suffering a hamstring injury last week and Kyle Schwarber is also out with a strained groin. They’re also missing JT Realmuto, who has been out for a few weeks for a torn meniscus.
And, yet, I like the Phillies today with rookie Michael Mercado on the hill against Hayden Wesneski. Mercado worked a relief inning back on June 24 and hasn’t pitched since, so it is a little bit of a weird spot for him, but he was a starter down in Triple-A and had a 1.71 ERA with 44 strikeouts in 47.1 innings of work. He only surrendered two home runs and only allowed 31 hits, as he has a deep, four-pitch mix where three of the four pitches grade above average at the MLB level already.
Meanwhile, the Cubs will send out Wesneski for his fifth start and 22nd appearance of the season. He’s got a 3.60 ERA, but a 4.81 xERA and a 4.65 FIP in his 45 innings of work. This will be his second straight start after giving up three runs on two hits (both homers) to the Giants last time out. He struck out seven, so he had some good stuff, but he has allowed a 10.3% Barrel% and a 40.5% Hard Hit% on the year.
The Phillies are missing some pieces, but both Schwarber and Harper are left-handed. Righties own a .436 SLG and a .315 wOBA against Wesneski this season, as he’s limited lefties to a .304 SLG and a .263 wOBA. Righties have hit six of the eight homers he has allowed.
The other thing about this handicap is that the Phillies bullpen is objectively better than the Cubs bullpen. I don’t think either starter works super deep into this game, so it will become a bullpen battle and the Phillies have the edge there. The Phillies led all of baseball in reliever fWAR in June at 1.9 and posted a 2.27 ERA with a 2.50 FIP. Only the Brewers were lower in ERA and the Phillies were .5 runs better than anybody else in FIP. The Cubs were 24th in FIP.
I’ll take my chances here with the better team and the better bullpen as an underdog.
Pick: Phillies +105
Tampa Bay Rays at Kansas City Royals (-118, 9.5)
8:10 p.m. ET
The Royals have some really interesting home/road splits and I think they’re worth playing on in tonight’s game against the Rays. As it is, the Royals are 30-16 at home and 17-23 on the road, so something nefarious may be afoot. There may be some shenanigans. But, let’s look at the data.
Let’s start with the Royals home/road splits (league ranks) on offense:
Home: .269 (1st) / .333 (5th) / .448 (3rd), .337 wOBA (2nd), 16.9% K% (1st), 8.5% BB (15th); 5.2 R/G
Away: .218 (29th) / .278 (29th) / .353 (27th), .278 wOBA (27th), 21.8% K% (12th), 6.7% BB% (27th); 3.8 R/G
Yeah… So those splits are pretty strange and very, very sharp, especially when you consider that Kauffman Stadium doesn’t have any sort of built-in advantage like a Coors Field or something to that effect.
It’s also stranger when you consider that a guy like Brady Singer has a 2.80 ERA with a .206/.264/.348 slash against and a .270 wOBA in 54.2 innings at home. He has a 3.63 ERA with a .270/.351/.474 slash and a .360 wOBA on the road in 34.2 innings of work. But, he’s been good at home and that’s what matters here.
Meanwhile, Zack Littell has been awful on the road. The Rays right-hander has a 5.13 ERA with a .338/.376/.527 slash against and a .391 wOBA against in 33.1 innings. His full-season numbers are impacted by the fact that his ERA is over a run and a half lower at home and he’s pitched 19.2 more innings at home.
All Royals pricing these days factors in how the bullpen isn’t very good, so the Royals are -118 for the full game and -135 for the 1st 5. But, I think they have a pretty big 1st 5 advantage here, so I’d take the -0.5 and get the +114 for the run line. Singer’s been good at home, the Royals are an elite offense at home, and Littell’s fly ball style is problematic outside of Tropicana Field, especially on a 90-degree day in KC with the wind blowing out.
Pick: Royals 1st 5 Run Line -0.5 (+114)
Arizona Diamondbacks at Los Angeles Dodgers (-198, 9)
10:10 p.m. ET
Ryne Nelson and Bobby Miller are the listed hurlers here between the Diamondbacks and Dodgers. It has been a rough season for both guys. Nelson comes in with a 5.69 ERA, 4.45 FIP, and a 4.66 xFIP in 68 innings of work. His 5.17 xERA ranks in the 12th percentile, while his .297 xBA ranks in the bottom 3% of qualified MLB pitchers in the eyes of Statcast. All of his contact management numbers are awful with a 12th percentile Barrel%, a 16th percentile Hard Hit%, and a bottom 10% average exit velocity. His .470 xSLG ranks in the bottom 7% as well. Nelson has allowed seven of his nine homers on the road, so that doesn’t hurt either.
There aren’t really any redeeming qualities for Nelson outside of a low walk rate against, but the Dodgers get into good hitter’s counts against anybody and should be able to drive the baseball in this one. They lead MLB in wOBA at .336 and finished fifth in the month of June at .345.
Miller checks in with a 6.75 ERA, 5.46 FIP, and a 4.01 xFIP, so there are some mild positive regression signs in the profile, but those assume a reasonable level of command and we aren’t getting that from Miller. Since he came off the IL, he’s made two starts and allowed eight runs on 10 hits in 8.1 innings with six walks against just three strikeouts. He’s allowed three Barrels and 14 hard-hit balls in those two outings.
The weird thing for Miller this season is that his four-seam fastball usage has really skyrocketed. Last time out, he threw over 30% sinkers, which didn’t really work either, but his four-seam usage is up to 42.7% after sitting 28.9% last season. This year, batters are hitting .282 with a .667 SLG against his four-seam. He also hasn’t located his sinker when he has thrown it.
In the month of June, the Diamondbacks were second to the Mets in batting run value on four-seamers at 20.1 batting runs. The Mets were at 20.4, so it was a close race.
Miller’s two starts came at Coors against Colorado and at the White Sox, so I don’t have a lot of confidence that he’ll get back on track against an Arizona team swinging it well and I pretty much never have confidence in Nelson.
Alternate ways to play this are Arizona Team Total 1st 5 Over 1.5 Runs at -135 if you are a little bit worried about the Dodgers offense or Dodgers Team Total 1st 5 Over 2.5 Runs at -125 if you think Miller can figure it out.
Pick: Diamondbacks/Dodgers 1st 5 Over 4.5 (-135)
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